Iranian Regime Braces for Potential Domestic Unrest

Tens of thousands of fighters from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces have reportedly crossed the Iran–Iraq border in recent weeks. These forces are not expected to participate in ground operations in the event of a potential U.S. assault on Kharg Island—widely regarded as the cornerstone of Iran’s economy and its primary oil export terminal, handling approximately 90% of the country’s crude oil shipments.

Instead, Iran-linked militias are said to have been deployed across Tehran and other major cities. Their primary role appears to be reinforcing internal security, as authorities prepare for potential mass unrest. Officials are increasingly concerned about what they describe as “epic fury” among the population, which could be triggered if a ceasefire is reached in the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel.

The possibility of a truce—potentially endorsed by Donald Trump—is seen by some within Iran as a signal that could embolden public dissent.

Hardline figures within the Iranian leadership are said to fear legal repercussions in the event of regime instability. Concerns reportedly include potential prosecution over the deaths of approximately 30,000 demonstrators in past unrest, as well as allegations of mismanagement and responsibility for the prolonged deterioration and massive destruction of Iran’s economy, industrial base, and critical infrastructure over the past four decades.