{"id":49506,"date":"2016-02-28T23:36:12","date_gmt":"2016-02-28T21:36:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=49506"},"modified":"2016-02-28T23:36:12","modified_gmt":"2016-02-28T21:36:12","slug":"china-tries-charm-to-reassure-over-slowing-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=49506","title":{"rendered":"China tries charm to reassure over slowing growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s normally reclusive central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan is an unusually prominent presence at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Shanghai, racing from seminar to news conference to spread positive messages about the world\u2019s second-largest economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

After months of silence, the governor of the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBoC) wants investors to know that the yuan currency \u2014 also known as the renminbi (RMB) \u2014 will be stable despite the slowest growth in a quarter of a century.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fundamentals of China\u2019s economy remain strong. There is no basis for persistent renminbi depreciation,\u201d Zhou told a conference on Friday, before delivering a similar message half an hour later at a rare media briefing by the central bank, all after he gave respected business magazine Caixin a lengthy interview earlier this month.<\/p>\n

Chinese officials are mounting an unprecedented charm offensive in an attempt to convince global investors that its economy and currency are healthy, but doubts over their message remain despite the public statements.<\/p>\n

The drive comes after senior officials from around the world \u2014 among them IMF chief Christine Lagarde and US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew \u2014 urged Chinese authorities to communicate better.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina is ramping up public relations in what will be a difficult 2016,\u201d China economist at IHS Global Insight, Brian Jackson, said in a research note.<\/p>\n

\u201cDuring the second half of 2015, a vacuum of public statements raised market uncertainty, which officials are now trying to fill, itself a positive development regardless of their exact messaging.\u201d<\/p>\n

A stock market slump and shock currency devaluation in mid-2015 raised worries about Beijing\u2019s ability to avoid a hard landing.<\/p>\n

Policymaking is secretive in the Communist-ruled country and state-backed media toe the party line, restricting the free flow of information that modern capital markets need, analysts say.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is important that they (Chinese officials) stick to the reform agenda that they have set out and that they communicate their policies clearly in a world that is very much anxious to know the reasons for actions that are taken,\u201d US treasury chief Lew told reporters in Shanghai.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Water and oil \u2013<\/p>\n

For an official who was appointed in 2002 but still speaks in public only a few times a year, Zhou seems to be everywhere at the G20 gathering, where 19 countries and the European Union are meeting to confront slowing global growth.<\/p>\n

But at the opening ceremony, he waved off an invitation from Finance Minister Lou Jiwei to speak in public for what would have been the third time that day \u2014 causing watching journalists to burst into laughter.<\/p>\n

The economic situation is more serious. China\u2019s economy expanded an annual 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest in 25 years. Its foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $3.2 trillion as nearly $200 billion flowed out of the country in December and January alone.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Zhou sought to explain: \u201cIt isn\u2019t like an oil field with fixed reserves that won\u2019t remain after you drain it. It\u2019s like a reservoir with water coming in from upstream and flowing out downstream.\u201d<\/p>\n

But investors have been confused by seemingly contradictory statements that pledge to move towards greater exchange rate flexibility while at the same time promising the currency will remain \u201cbasically\u201d stable.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom the standpoint of currency market players, this is not a credible position,\u201d Arthur Kroeber, head of research for Gavekal Dragonomics, told the same seminar that Zhou addressed.<\/p>\n

\u2013 Botched communication \u2013<\/p>\n

Financial markets have regularly been confused and concerned by Chinese decisions.<\/p>\n

In January, a \u201ccircuit-breaker\u201d mechanism intended to reduce volatility on Chinese stock exchanges was abruptly withdrawn after it instead panicked investors and forced the bourses to close early twice in four days.<\/p>\n

On Thursday the PBoC stopped allowing some banks to use lower reserve ratio requirements \u2014 the amount of funds they must put aside \u2014 helping to send the Shanghai stock market down more than six percent as the change acts against monetary stimulus.<\/p>\n

The move was only confirmed when the PBoC sought to deny a Bloomberg News report on the issue \u2014 with a convoluted statement that disclosed some banks had their reserve requirements revised upwards.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, the PBoC suddenly stopped publishing foreign exchange statistics for financial institutions, data analysts have used to help gauge fund outflows. On Friday, the central bank said the figures could be \u201cquite misleading\u201d.<\/p>\n

Despite the positive messages, analysts still forecast China\u2019s economic growth will slow in 2016 from last year\u2019s 6.9 percent, and the yuan will weaken further.<\/p>\n

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is expected to declare a lower growth target at next weekend\u2019s opening of the National People\u2019s Congress parliament, probably a range of 6.5-7.0 percent.<\/p>\n

But Li sought to reassure G20 finance ministers and central bankers that his government is able to handle the situation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have the confidence to handle the complex situation at home and abroad,\u201d he told the opening ceremony.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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