{"id":47242,"date":"2016-02-02T14:32:57","date_gmt":"2016-02-02T12:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=47242"},"modified":"2016-02-02T14:32:57","modified_gmt":"2016-02-02T12:32:57","slug":"how-sanders-turned-clintons-sure-bet-in-iowa-into-a-dead-heat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=47242","title":{"rendered":"How Sanders Turned Clinton\u2019s Sure Bet in Iowa into a Dead Heat"},"content":{"rendered":"

DES MOINES \u2014\u00a0It was the first big strategy session between Hillary Clinton and the yet-to-be-announced manager of her yet-to-be-launched presidential campaign.<\/strong><\/p>\n

As they huddled that day last March in the converted barn that serves as her home office in Chappaqua, N.Y., Robby Mook thought he ought to call the presumed front-runner\u2019s attention to a rumor that was starting to go around.<\/p>\n

\u201cBernie Sanders is going to be a real contender if he gets in,\u201d Mook recalls warning his new boss. Mook grew up in Vermont and knew what happened to those who underestimated Burlington\u2019s onetime mayor.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve seen this guy in action,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Clinton, he said, had the same uneasy feeling about her ex-colleague from the Senate.<\/p>\n

Sanders turned out to be more dire a threat than either could have anticipated.<\/p>\n

[<\/i><\/b>Packed caucuses: Iowa kicks off 2016 race for the White House<\/i><\/b><\/a>]<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Not only did Sanders live up to Mook\u2019s assessment of his political skills, but in Iowa, he fit the moment and the passions of a Democratic base that put him in position to pull off one of the biggest upsets in the history of the caucuses.<\/p>\n

Clinton was determined not to repeat the mistakes of 2008, when her seeming inevitability melted in Iowa like a snowman in April.<\/p>\n

This time, she accepted the state and its quirky caucus system on their own terms, building a formidable army of operatives and volunteers. Staffers at the Brooklyn headquarters were instructed to cater to the needs of state-level organizers.<\/p>\n

The meticulous work proved crucial as Clinton\u2019s wide lead began to evaporate over the summer. She had to grapple with a Republican onslaught over her handling of the 2012 attacks in Benghazi, Libya. And she endured the controversy over her use of a private email server.<\/p>\n

In Sanders, Clinton came up against a challenger who lacked her organizational firepower but campaigned as a repudiation of the front-runner\u2019s establishment credentials. Sanders\u2019s vow to blow up the big banks effectively painted Clinton as an ally of Wall Street.<\/p>\n

The mood in Iowa proved unwelcoming to another establishment candidate, former Maryland governor Martin O\u2019Malley. His record of achievements checked just about every box on the liberal wish list but never found traction. He quickly fizzled despite early expectations that he would have his moment, too.<\/p>\n

Sanders\u2019s rise in Iowa exposed weaknesses that could haunt the Democratic front-runner.<\/p>\n

A self-described democratic socialist who was running 30 points behind her in the polls as recently as November, Sanders drew support from young people, liberals and independents.<\/p>\n

The photo finish showed that Republicans are not the only voters looking for qualities beyond experience and electability.<\/p>\n

Building on a message<\/b><\/p>\n

The reality of what was happening dawned on Sanders when he got stuck in traffic on a Sunday morning.<\/p>\n

The senator from Vermont had launched his longshot bid five days before. He was headed to a May 31 rally at the American Indian Center in Minneapolis, his first big campaign event outside his New England home turf.<\/p>\n

But Sanders was still blocks away \u2014 and the car he was in was not moving.<\/p>\n

\u201cIs there a wreck ahead?\u201d Sanders anxiously asked his field director, Phil Fiermonte.<\/p>\n

[<\/i><\/b>Voting and analysis: 2016 Iowa election results<\/i><\/b><\/a>]<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cNo,\u201d Fiermonte replied, \u201cthey\u2019re here to see you.\u201d<\/p>\n

More than 3,000 of them, many standing outside because the hall was full.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt never occurred to me in a million years that line was for us,\u201d Sanders recalled in a telephone interview Sunday, as his campaign bus chugged between Marshalltown and Ames on the eve of the Iowa caucuses. \u201cI said, \u2018Whoa.\u2019 That was the first inkling that I had that this campaign was catching on.\u201d<\/p>\n

And the crowds kept getting bigger \u2014 in Denver, in Madison, even red-state bastions like Dallas and Houston. At the Phoenix Convention Center in mid-July, he drew upward of 11,000, more than double the number who had shown up there for Donald Trump the week before. The biggest was in Portland, Ore., where 28,000 came to hear him in August.<\/p>\n

Still, Sanders barely registered in the national polls. His organization was starting from nothing. Clinton had hired most of the name-brand political talent and had all the big endorsements. Many of those who hadn\u2019t joined her were leery of crossing her.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In the early days of the Sanders campaign, \u201cthere was a guy. There was a message. That was it,\u201d said political consultant Tad Devine, who had worked for a couple of Sanders\u2019s congressional campaigns and signed on for his presidential one.<\/p>\n

But Sanders had been thinking about doing this for a long time. He had been traveling the country venting his outrage over income inequality, the excesses of Wall Street and the corruption of the campaign finance system. His speeches found receptive audiences, but he did not seem to be resonating beyond them.<\/p>\n

[<\/i><\/b>Why it matters so much if Hillary Clinton loses Iowa tonight<\/i><\/b><\/a>]<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

In March 2014, he sought out Bill Press, a liberal radio talk-show host who had been chair of the California Democratic Party in the mid-1990s.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe told me that he had come to the realization that the only way people take you seriously and listen to your ideas is if you run for president,\u201d Press recalled. \u201cHe thought that was kind of silly, but that\u2019s the way it was.\u201d<\/p>\n

For his own part, Press said: \u201cI didn\u2019t want to see a coronation. I thought the party would fall asleep, and Hillary is at her best with a challenge.\u201d<\/p>\n

Press put together two dinners for Sanders with about a dozen people at his house on Capitol Hill. One was in April, the other in November.<\/p>\n

Among those who attended one or both: Susan McCue, a former chief of staff for Senate Democratic leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.); Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.); Brad Woodhouse, a former Democratic National Committee spokesman who now heads the liberal super PAC American Bridge 21st Century; Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.); and Alyssa Mastromonaco, former deputy chief of staff in the Obama White House who had answered phones in Sanders\u2019s congressional office back when she was a college student in Vermont.<\/p>\n

At the first dinner, \u201cBernie gave his ideas. We all kicked it around,\u201d Press said. \u201cThe main thing that came out of the first meeting was there was a possibility and a need for somebody to raise those issues, but if he ran, he should definitely run as a Democrat.\u201d<\/p>\n

Devine led the discussion at the second dinner, and \u201cbasically laid out a plan of how to get from here to there,\u201d Press said. \u201cIt was much more focused and much more real. Bernie took that, and off he goes. It was only a matter of when, not if, he announced.\u201d<\/p>\n

That this would be an unconventional, no-nonsense operation was clear from the outset.<\/p>\n

Sanders made his April 30 announcement at a 10-minute news conference on a grassy spot near the Capitol parking lot known as the Senate Swamp. With tourists and congressional staffers wandering in the background, he opened: \u201cWe don\u2019t have an endless amount of time. I\u2019ve gotta get back.\u201d<\/p>\n

[<\/i><\/b>Iowa caucuses leave Republican and Democratic contests far from settled<\/i><\/b><\/a>]<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

A month later would come the camera-ready formal launch. Sanders \u2014 standing against glittering, sun-washed Lake Champlain, and with his hair combed this time \u2014 promised a cheering crowd of 5,000: \u201cToday, with your support and the support of millions of people throughout our country, we begin a political revolution to transform our country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Weathering the crises<\/b><\/p>\n

At Clinton\u2019s Brooklyn headquarters, Mook had scribbled a message on a whiteboard: \u201cWhat have you done for Iowa today?\u201d<\/p>\n

Occasionally, someone would erase it, and Mook would write it again.<\/p>\n

The line was a reminder of how different the campaign operation was from 2008, when Clinton\u2019s team had debated internally whether to even compete in Iowa.<\/p>\n

Nationally, however, the opening months of her presidential campaign were a deluge of bad news for Clinton.<\/p>\n

First came the revelation that she had been using a private email account, rather than a government one, for conducting business as secretary of state. Then a spate of stories about the finances of the Clinton Foundation and her six-figure speaking fees. Then came the news that Vice President Biden was considering a late entry into the race \u2014 in part because some Democrats worried that Clinton was starting to look like a weak general election candidate.<\/p>\n

In October, it was coming to a head, with the added tests of the first Democratic debate and her grilling before the House Select Committee on Benghazi.<\/p>\n

The day before she was to testify, Clinton and her aides were holding a prep session at her dining room table in Washington when communications direction Jennifer Palmieri got a text message telling her to turn on CNN.<\/p>\n

Biden was heading for the Rose Garden, with President Obama in tow. That choice of venue could mean only one thing, they knew: Biden was not running.<\/p>\n

One crisis was averted. But another one was brewing. While the Benghazi hearing was a chance for Clinton to shine while fending off attacks from political enemies, aides knew that any mistake or gaffe could prompt more doubts about her strength.<\/p>\n

The next morning, as Clinton was preparing to leave home for Capitol Hill, she got a jarring call from longtime aide Cheryl Mills. With just an hour to go before the start of the hearing, the Republicans had just dropped a binder full of hundreds of documents they intended to use in their questioning \u2014 documents that Clinton had not prepared for.<\/p>\n

Among them, Clinton aides say, was an email she had sent to her daughter, Chelsea, on the night of the attacks in which the secretary blamed \u201can Al Q[a]eda-like group.\u201d GOP lawmakers saw it as a smoking gun, evidence that the Obama administration knew the attack had been terrorism even though officials initially said the incident had been sparked by an anti-Muslim video.<\/p>\n

[<\/i><\/b>How Ted Cruz clinched a victory<\/i><\/b><\/a>]<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

But Clinton lawyer David Kendall had negotiated to prevent something that could have been more damaging: a plan by committee Republicans to have Clinton raise her right hand and be sworn in at the opening of the hearing, which would have produced an image that would be a GOP admaker\u2019s dream. Instead, Clinton signed an oath before the hearing started.<\/p>\n

Clinton emerged from October with her poll numbers on an upward swing. Meanwhile, Mook was preparing for the long game. He had already moved organizers into Colorado and Minnesota, which like Iowa are caucus states, set to hold their contests on March 1. In other words, they were just the kind of place where a political movement like the one that Sanders had ignited could run up the delegate score.<\/p>\n

As voting day in Iowa drew near, former president Bill Clinton hit the trail for his wife, calling Mook frequently to pepper him with questions and advice. He urged the campaign to focus more on her biography \u2014 which it has.<\/p>\n

\u201cHave we told people about how she reformed the educational system in Arkansas?\u201d Bill Clinton would say, according to Mook. \u201cHave we told people about the pre-K work she did? Have we told people about the Children\u2019s Defense Fund?\u201d<\/p>\n

Mook added of the former president: \u201cHe\u2019s also a junkie. He just likes to talk shop.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018The surprise campaign\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n

Sanders recruited a trusted former aide, Jeff Weaver, to be his campaign manager.<\/p>\n

Weaver had left as Sanders\u2019s chief of staff to open a comic book and gaming store in 2009. He had been reluctant to be drawn back into politics, especially for a quixotic venture, but Sanders convinced him it was not. \u201cIt became clear to me from the beginning that he was running to win,\u201d Weaver said. \u201cThis was not just a speaking tour.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sanders also made clear what kind of organization he wanted.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt had to be a modern campaign, with all the modern tools of running, without becoming a corporatized environment,\u201d Weaver said.<\/p>\n

The money came quickly. Devine had told Sanders that he had to raise at least $40 million \u2014 and preferably $50 million \u2014 if he wanted to be competitive by the Iowa caucuses. By the end of last year, they had raised $73 million. In January, an additional $20 million poured in, almost all of it from contributions that averaged around $27.<\/p>\n

That was enough for Sanders to put an additional 139 organizers in Iowa in January, more than doubling the total the campaign was saying publicly. As the political world focused throughout the summer on the gains Sanders was making against Clinton in New Hampshire, his campaign was building an Iowa operation earlier, and with more resources, than was generally recognized<\/p>\n

Weaver called it \u201cthe other campaign .\u2009.\u2009. the surprise campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sanders\u2019s first Iowa rally, which was in late May in Davenport, drew 700 people \u2014 the largest Iowa crowd any candidate had seen at that point. Volunteers were stationed there an hour and a half early to collect information about the attendees.<\/p>\n

Typically at that early stage, voters are just starting to shop around for a candidate. But to the surprise of the embryonic Sanders campaign, one-third of those who attended that rally arrived ready to sign up as committed to the candidate.<\/p>\n

\u2018There was this organic thing happening,\u201d said Pete D\u2019Alessandro, the field director. \u201cThat\u2019s where Senator Sanders knew it from the beginning. His message \u2014 this was something people were waiting to rally behind.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although there was no doubt about the enthusiasm, marshalling it into 1,681 precinct caucuses presented a challenge.<\/p>\n

The campaign estimated that as many as 40 percent of the supporters it identified had never been to a caucus before. At meetings of his precinct captains, D\u2019Alessandro would ask which of them would be attending their first; sometimes, half the people in the room would raise their hands. And then there was the occasional volunteer who would tell him: \u201cYeah, I haven\u2019t done this since McGovern,\u201d referring to the Democrat who ran in 1972.<\/p>\n

The campaign made an intense effort to train organizers and volunteers on how to canvass and phone-bank. Staffers sent out regular math exercises for them to do over the instant-messaging system Slack, to make sure they understood the calculations they would have to make under the arcane rules on caucus night.<\/p>\n

Sanders\u2019s operation tried to seize on opportunities presented by the unlikely sensation that the gruff 74-year-old senator was creating among young voters. Organizers got a list of 25,000 high school seniors to target, aware that anyone who would be 18 or older in November is eligible to caucus.<\/p>\n

In the tiny hamlet of Underwood outside Cedar Rapids, the campaign signed up 35 12th graders \u2014 potentially enough to tip the balance on caucus night in a town of only 932 people.<\/p>\n

All of it was a bet on turnout. By the day before the caucuses, the campaign\u2019s internal models showed that it would take 170,000 or more, second only to the record 240,00 that showed up in 2008, for Sanders to win.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe thing that keeps me up at night \u2014 What if we are wrong? What if everyone\u2019s right, and these people have just been coming to rallies?\u201d D\u2019Alessandro said as he headed into the final weekend.<\/p>\n

For most of the early months, Sanders continued to shun many of the trappings of a big-league political campaign. He did not hire a pollster or set up a voter modeling operation until October.<\/p>\n

In retrospect, his campaign manager, Weaver, said, \u201cIf I had known the money would be there, I would have scaled up bigger earlier.\u201d<\/p>\n

There were rough patches that showed how hard it was to go from running for office in a small, ethnically homogeneous state to a national campaign. Sanders seemed to be taken off balance when Black Lives Matter protesters began showing up at his events. And pundits wondered whether he had blundered at the first debate when the biggest controversy surrounding Clinton came up and he declared, \u201cThe American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails!\u201d<\/p>\n

But the fact that whether he could beat Clinton in Iowa was even a question became an accomplishment in itself, given how far back Sanders had started.<\/p>\n

And now, a party that expected a coronation is settling in for a marathon.<\/p>\n

Alice Crites contributed to this report, which was originally published in <\/i>The Washington Post<\/i><\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n

Read more at The Post:<\/p>\n

Iowa caucuses: Here\u2019s how the voting works<\/a><\/p>\n

John McCain\u2019s cold-blooded revenge on Ted Cruz<\/a><\/p>\n

The crippling problem restaurant-goers haven\u2019t noticed but chefs are freaking out about<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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