{"id":46181,"date":"2016-01-04T23:11:23","date_gmt":"2016-01-04T21:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=46181"},"modified":"2016-01-04T23:11:23","modified_gmt":"2016-01-04T21:11:23","slug":"when-doves-cry-the-end-of-qe-in-the-ecb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=46181","title":{"rendered":"When Doves Cry: The End of QE in the ECB"},"content":{"rendered":"<p dir=\"ltr\"><strong>While the European Central Bank announced tamer-than-expected quantitative easing measures this month, it also offered a bit of reassurance to those counting on a broader QE program: bank president Mario Draghi said that the ECB was prepared, if necessary, to implement further easing. But is more easing actually likely in the coming year? Credit Suisse believes the answer is \u201cno.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">To understand why, it\u2019s important to look at what might have prompted the bank to limit its latest round of easing. The only substantive stimulus measure announced, Credit Suisse analysts say, was a deposit rate cut to -0.3% from -0.2%. Many investors, encouraged by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last month about the bank being intent to raise inflation \u201cas fast as possible,\u201d had expected more, such as a deeper deposit rate cut. Their disappointment manifested itself in the sharp appreciation of the euro against the dollar and a sell-off in short-duration peripheral bonds after the ECB\u2019s Dec. 3 announcement.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">But the economic data coming out of Europe in recent months doesn\u2019t support calls for more stimulus. A range of indicators suggest that the continent\u2019s economy is growing above-trend at a pace of 1.5 percent and Credit Suisse says that the prospect for growth in the region in 2016 is as good as it\u2019s been in a decade. \u201cThere has been no downturn for the ECB to urgently offset,\u201d Neville Hill, Head of European Economics at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent note.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">What may have appeared urgent, at least in the eyes of ECB officials, was limiting the short-term weakness of the euro against the dollar, which \u2014 its recent slide notwithstanding \u2014 is poised to appreciate thanks to the much-anticipated interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Markets Committee\u00a0announced its first rate hike in more than nine years \u2014 a quarter-point increase to a target range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent \u2014 at its Dec. 16 meeting. The ECB\u2019s moves \u201cmay make lift-off for the Fed\u2026a little easier,\u201d Hill wrote.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">What, if anything, would prompt the European Central Bank to step up quantitative easing again? The most likely cause would be low inflation. Headline inflation has teetered at zero this year while core inflation\u2019s upward trend has stalled. The ECB expects inflation to average 1% next year, but a downward trend in core inflation or no rise in headline inflation could prompt the bank to act. The likelihood of either scenario is questionable, however: Credit Suisse suspects that core inflation\u2019s movements are erratic \u2014 rather than being indicative of a steady downward trend \u2014 while stabilizing energy prices should help push headline inflation up.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\">There are three potential factors that could prompt more quantitative easing: a significant rise in the euro, a large drop in oil prices or a surprise drop in euro area growth. But without such shocks, the coming year will likely see no new easing by the ECB. In light of the current and anticipated monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, investors can also expect steeper yield curves in the euro area and a flatter one in the U.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the European Central Bank announced tamer-than-expected quantitative easing measures this month, it also offered a bit of reassurance to those counting on a broader QE program: bank president Mario Draghi said that the ECB was prepared, if necessary, to implement further easing. But is more easing actually likely in the coming year? Credit Suisse &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":46191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-te-public"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When Doves Cry: The End of QE in the ECB - Arab Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=46181\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Doves Cry: The End of QE in the ECB - Arab Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While the European Central Bank announced tamer-than-expected quantitative easing measures this month, it also offered a bit of reassurance to those counting on a broader QE program: bank president Mario Draghi said that the ECB was prepared, if necessary, to implement further easing. 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