{"id":206029,"date":"2024-07-15T18:23:06","date_gmt":"2024-07-15T15:23:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=206029"},"modified":"2024-11-21T22:32:49","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T20:32:49","slug":"morning-bid-trump-hit-steepens-curve-chinas-economy-judders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=206029","title":{"rendered":"Morning Bid: Trump hit steepens curve; China’s economy judders"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shock shooting on Saturday of former President Donald Trump<\/a>, who is seeking a return to the White House, is reverberating around world markets, with bets that the incident boosts his re-election chances steepening the Treasury yield curve and lifting stock futures first thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The full implications of the gun attack on Trump, who escaped with a minor injury to his ear to head to the\u00a0Republican convention<\/a>\u00a0in Milwaukee on Monday, may take\u00a0some time<\/a>\u00a0for the country and investors to absorb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for now the simple conclusion is that the shooting likely increases Trump’s already considerable chances of returning to the White House after November’s election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For most analysts trying to parse that for markets, that ups the chances of tax cut extensions and higher trade tariffs – leading to even higher U.S. fiscal deficits, even alongside potential growth headwinds and intense political pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease as inflation continues to subside near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some also suspect a possible withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine would also up fiscal pressures in Europe, who may then have to pick up the entire financial bill left by an American retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With U.S. equities expected to benefit initially from tariffs, tax cuts and a possible spur to re-shoring of manufacturing, already record high stocks tend to be called higher on the increased prospect of a Trump win too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So first thing Monday – with betting markets now putting chances of a Trump election win close to 70% – U.S. stock futures were higher and the 2-to-30-year Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive for the first time since January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two-year-old yield curve inversion from two to 10 years, meantime, also squeezed to narrowest since January at just 23 basis points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With short-term yields still falling in the slipstream of last week’s surprising disinflation news, and futures now fully priced for a first Fed rate cut in September, but long-term yields edging higher regardless, the curve was clearly riffing off the Trump incident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin’s jump back above $60,000 for the first time in a couple of weeks was seen as another related reaction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And most obvious of all perhaps, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O), opens new tab<\/a> – majority owned by Trump – surged 63% to $50.3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dollar fallout more broadly is harder to figure – not least with Japanese markets closed for a holiday on Monday and following Thursday’s latest round of yen-buying intervention by the Bank of Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On balance, the dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab<\/a> and dollar\/yen were stuck fast – with early dollar gains against Mexico’s peso and China’s yuan pared back a bit ahead of the open as full-year Fed easing speculation rose as high as 63 bps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The euro and sterling held last week’s gains, the latter at its best levels in a year against the dollar and in two years against the euro . Currency market volatility subsided, meantime, and three-month implied vol for the pivotal euro\/dollar exchange rate fell to its lowest since late 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s markets had a mixed reaction to another surprisingly poor<\/a> set of economic readings there – second-quarter GDP growth fell to as low as 4.7%, far below the 5% that was both forecast by economists and also targeted by Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although there was a slight beat in June industrial numbers, retail sales also missed expectations for the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps most alarming of all is the ongoing house price bust, with new home prices<\/a> falling for the 11th straight month in May and the 3.9% annual decline being the steepest in nine years. Property investment fell 10.1% in the first half of 2024 from a year earlier, meantime, and home sales by floor area declined 19%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hong Kong stocks (.HSI), opens new tab<\/a> did lunge 1.5% lower and the yuan weakened slightly on interest rate cut speculation, but mainland China stocks (.CSI300), opens new tab<\/a> eked out a small gain on hopes of more substantial government support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s ruling Communist Party<\/a> starts its ‘third plenum’ this week. Reforms top the agenda and, amid a packed priority list, may include the most significant overhaul of the fiscal system in three decades to try to redirect income from Beijing to cash-strapped regional governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back on Wall Street, the earnings season unfolds with Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab<\/a> and BlackRock next up after an underwhelming start<\/a> from other big banks on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Google parent Alphabet<\/a> (GOOGL.O), opens new tab<\/a> is in advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for roughly $23 billion, in a deal that would represent the technology giant’s biggest acquisition ever.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* New York Fed’s June manufacturing survey<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* US corporate earnings: Goldman Sachs, BlackRock<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks in Washington, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* Euro group of euro zone finance ministers meet in Brussels<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* U.S. Republican party convention starts<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* US Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills<\/p>\n\n\n

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Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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