{"id":167242,"date":"2020-06-02T21:06:06","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T19:06:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=167242"},"modified":"2020-06-02T21:06:08","modified_gmt":"2020-06-02T19:06:08","slug":"as-minneapolis-burns-donald-trumps-presidency-is-sinking-deeper-into-crisis-yet-he-may-still-be-re-elected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=167242","title":{"rendered":"As Minneapolis burns, Donald Trump’s presidency is sinking deeper into crisis. Yet, he may still be re-elected"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Violence has\u00a0erupted across several US cities\u00a0after the death of a black man, George Floyd, who was shown on video gasping for breath as a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, knelt on his neck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unrest poses serious challenges for President Donald Trump and former vice-president Joe Biden as each man readies his campaign for the November 3 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the coronavirus had not already posed a threat to civil discourse in the US, the latest flashpoint in American racial politics makes this presidential campaign potentially one of the most incendiary in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 and Minneapolis may very well form the nexus within which the 2020 campaign will unfold. Trump’s critics have assailed his handling of both and questioned whether he can effectively lead the country in a moment of crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, he may not be any more vulnerable heading into the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Thousands
The death of George Floyd has sparked the latest flashpoint in American racial politics and makes this presidential campaign potentially one of the most incendiary in history<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

A presidency in crisis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the incumbent, Trump certainly faces the most immediate challenges. Not since Franklin Roosevelt in World War II has a US president presided over the deaths of so many Americans from a single cause.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Axis powers and COVID-19 are not analogous, but any presidency is judged by its capacity to respond to enemies like these. With\u00a0pandemic deaths now surpassing 100,000, Trump’s fortunes will be inexorably tied to this staggering (and still rising) figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"People
People wait for a distribution of masks and food in the Harlem neighbourhood of New York. More than 100,000 people have died from coronavirus in the US<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Worse, the Minneapolis protests are showing how an already precarious social fabric has been frayed by the COVID-19 lockdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americans have not come together to fight the virus. Rather, they have allowed a public health disaster to deepen divisions along racial, economic, sectional and ideological lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has, of course, often sought to gain from such divisions. But the magnitude and severity of the twin crises he is now facing will make this very difficult. By numerous measures, his is a presidency in crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump, a ferocious campaigner, will try to find ways to use both tragedies to his advantage and, importantly, makes things worse for his challenger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For starters, Trump did not cause coronavirus. And\u00a0he will continue to insist\u00a0that his great geo-strategic adversary, the Chinese Communist Party, did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And his is not the first presidency to be marked by the conflagration of several US cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before Minneapolis,\u00a0Detroit\u00a0(1967),\u00a0Los Angeles\u00a0(1992) and\u00a0Ferguson, Missouri\u00a0(2014) were all the scenes of angry protests and riots over racial tensions that still haven’t healed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the 19th century,\u00a0750,000 Americans were killed in a civil war\u00a0that was fought over whether the enslavement of African-Americans was\u00a0constitutional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump may not have healed racial tensions in the US during his presidency. But, like coronavirus, he did not cause them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Trump can blame Democrats for Minneapolis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Not unhappily for Trump, Minneapolis is a largely Democratic city in a reliably blue state. He will campaign now on the failure of Democratic state leaders to answer the needs of black voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump will claim that decades of Democratic policies in Minnesota \u2014 including the eight years of the Obama administration \u2014 have caused Minneapolis to be one of the\u00a0most racially unequal cities\u00a0in the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, Trump\u00a0famously asked African-Americans\u00a0whether Democratic leaders have done anything to improve their lives. What do you have to lose by trying something new, like Trump? He will repeat this mantra in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It also certainly helps that his support among Republican voters has never wavered, no matter his behaviour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has enjoyed a stable\u00a080 per cent approval rating\u00a0with GOP voters throughout the coronavirus crisis. This has helped keep his approval rating among all voters steady as the pandemic has worsened,\u00a0hovering between 40 and 50 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are not terrible numbers. Yes, Trump’s leadership has contributed to a series of disasters. But if the polls are correct, he has so far avoided the kinds of catastrophe that could imperil his chances of re-election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why this moment is challenging for Biden<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"A
Artist Theo Ponchaveli works on a mural of George Floyd, in Dallas <\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Biden should be able to make a good case to the American people at this moment that he is the more effective leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this has not yet been reflected in polls, most of which continue to give the Democrat\u00a0only a lukewarm advantage\u00a0over Trump in the election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other problem is that the Democratic party remains discordant. And Biden has not yet shown a capacity to heal it.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Race has also long been a\u00a0source of division\u00a0within Biden’s party. Southern Democrats, for instance,\u00a0were the key agents of slavery\u00a0in the 19th century and the segregation that followed it into the 20th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Barack
During his time as president, Barack Obama regularly referred to his vice-president Joe Biden as a friend<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After the 1960s, Democrats sought to make themselves the natural home of African-American voters as the\u00a0Republican party courted\u00a0disaffected white Southern voters. The Democrats largely succeeded on that front \u2014\u00a0the party routinely gets around 85-90 per cent of black votes\u00a0in presidential elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenge for Biden now is how to retain African-American loyalty to his party, while evading responsibility for the socio-economic failures of Democratic policies in cities like Minneapolis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is also a white northerner (from Delaware). From 1964 until 2008,\u00a0only three Democrats were elected president. All of them were southerners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To compensate, Biden has had to rely on racial politics to separate himself from his primary challenger \u2014\u00a0Bernie Sanders struggled to channel black aspirations\u00a0\u2014 and from Republicans. And this has, at times, caused him to court controversy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2012,\u00a0he warned African-Americans\u00a0that then-Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney would put them “all back in chains”‘. And just over a week ago,\u00a0he angered black voters\u00a0by suggesting those who would support Trump in the election, “ain’t black”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden is far better than Trump on racial issues and should be able to use the current crises to present himself as a more natural “‘consoler-in-chief”‘, but instead, he has appeared somewhat flatfooted and derided for being racially patronising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opportunities COVID-19 and the Minneapolis unrest might afford his campaign remain elusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is reason for hope<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

America enters the final months of the 2020 campaign in a state of despair and disrepair. The choice is between an opportunistic incumbent and a tin-eared challenger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the US has faced serious challenges before \u2014 and emerged stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither the civil war in the 19th century or the Spanish flu pandemic in the early 20th halted the extraordinary growth in power that followed both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the US constitution remains intact and federalism has undergone something of\u00a0a rebirth\u00a0since the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there is a new generation of younger, more diverse, national leaders being forged in the fire of crisis to help lead the recovery.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Violence has\u00a0erupted across several US cities\u00a0after the death of a black man, George Floyd, who was shown on video gasping for breath as a white police officer, Derek Chauvin, knelt on his neck. The unrest poses serious challenges for President Donald Trump and former vice-president Joe Biden as each man readies his campaign for the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":167243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-167242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-te-public"],"yoast_head":"\nAs Minneapolis burns, Donald Trump's presidency is sinking deeper into crisis. 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