{"id":111441,"date":"2017-12-02T02:58:36","date_gmt":"2017-12-02T00:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=111441"},"modified":"2017-12-02T02:58:36","modified_gmt":"2017-12-02T00:58:36","slug":"fear-of-missing-out-keeps-investors-in-stocks-despite-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=111441","title":{"rendered":"Fear of missing out keeps investors in stocks despite risks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wall Street\u2019s fear of missing out on a relentless rally appears to be trumping rising political risk in a high-stakes December in Washington.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The ticking clock on the Republican Party\u2019s efforts to cut corporate taxes, alongside the risk that the U.S. government may shut down if a budget deal isn\u2019t reached by December 8, is increasing the levels of political risk for investors – but they have yet to really react.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now the market is assuming that everything will work out, but you\u2019ve got a tremendous number of moving parts,\u201d said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors\u00a0in New York.<\/p>\n

Alongside the back-and-forth on taxes, Wall Street will be watching a Dec. 8 expiration date for funding needed to keep the U.S. government open alongside the deadline when the U.S. Treasury hits its limit on borrowing; as well as a Dec. 12 Special U.S. Senate election in Alabama.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump warned on Twitter that \u201cI don\u2019t see a deal\u201d to keep the government open and work past Dec. 8, although the White House said Wednesday it did not see such an eventuality.<\/p>\n

Typically, the threat of a government shutdown alone would prompt fund managers to move more of their assets into cash. The benchmark S&P 500 lost 2.6 percent in the eight trading days before the last government shutdown in 2013, and has declined an average of 0.6 percent during government shutdowns overall, according to LPL Financial. Debt limit concerns are likely to be put off until 2018 as the U.S. Treasury is expected to take steps to postpone any need for action by Congress.<\/p>\n

Yet with the benchmark S&P 500 up nearly 18 percent for the year to date, some portfolio managers see a greater risk in stepping to the sidelines. Throughout the year, the stock market has rallied in the face of standoffs ranging from increasing tensions in North Korea to former FBI director\u2019s James Comey\u2019s testimony to Congress that President Trump fired him to undermine the agency\u2019s Russia investigation.<\/p>\n

On Friday, stocks sold off on a report that former national security adviser Michael Flynn was prepared to tell investigators that before taking office Trump had directed him to make contact with Russians. However, shares quickly pared those losses.<\/p>\n

Despite his skepticism, Orlando has yet to move more of his assets to cash, in large part because corporate earnings keep rising and should continue to do so even if a tax package is not signed, he said.<\/p>\n

If the tax bill fails, Orlando said he expected the S&P 500 to fall by as much as 10 percent. He would be a buyer in that case, he said, because he expected the S&P 500 to reach 3000 within the next 18 months.<\/p>\n

CROWDED CALENDAR<\/h3>\n

Brian Peery, a portfolio manager at Novato, California-based Hennessy Funds, said a government shutdown or the tax bill failing would prompt a swift sell-off, but that rising consumer confidence would ultimately continue to push the market higher over the next year.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIf I\u2018m looking at a 10 percent correction, I\u2018m a buyer,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The inaction is not limited to the stock market.<\/p>\n

Christopher Ryon, a municipal bond fund manager at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management, said that the Republican tax bill could reduce the size of the municipal bond market by 25 to 30 percent by limiting the ability of stadiums, airports and privately-financed toll roads to qualify for tax-exempt status.<\/p>\n

At the same time, there could be an increased demand for municipal bonds if residents of high-tax states are no longer able to deduct their full state and local property taxes, leaving tax-free municipal bonds as one of the few ways wealthy investors can reduce their taxable incomes.<\/p>\n

As a result, Ryon is largely sitting on his hands, ignoring both lower-rated bonds that have rallied as investors have reached for yield and triple A rated bonds that look \u201con the rich side,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are a whole lot of unintended consequences attached to this [tax] legislation,\u201d Ryon said. \u201cThis is going to be an interesting couple of weeks where we will really see how the sausage gets made.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wall Street\u2019s fear of missing out on a relentless rally appears to be trumping rising political risk in a high-stakes December in Washington. The ticking clock on the Republican Party\u2019s efforts to cut corporate taxes, alongside the risk that the U.S. government may shut down if a budget deal isn\u2019t reached by December 8, is …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":111448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-te-public"],"yoast_head":"\nFear of missing out keeps investors in stocks despite risks - Arab Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=111441\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fear of missing out keeps investors in stocks despite risks - Arab Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wall Street\u2019s fear of missing out on a relentless rally appears to be trumping rising political risk in a high-stakes December in Washington. 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