{"id":101094,"date":"2017-08-16T02:17:23","date_gmt":"2017-08-16T00:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=101094"},"modified":"2017-08-16T02:17:23","modified_gmt":"2017-08-16T00:17:23","slug":"to-launch-or-not-either-way-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-may-gain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=101094","title":{"rendered":"To launch or not? Either way, North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong Un may gain"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"heading-part\">\n<h4 class=\"synopsis\" dir=\"ltr\">North Korea&#8217;s plan is to launch four missiles into the waters around the U.S. Pacific territory: one to the north, one to the south, and one each east and west. Pyongyang is calling it an &#8220;enveloping fire&#8221; demonstration.<\/h4>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">If, after all the fanfare, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un doesn\u2019t actually launch missiles toward Guam, many may write the whole episode off as another of the North\u2019s seemingly endless bluffs. But from Pyongyang\u2019s perspective and in the eyes of some U.S. military experts, Kim and his generals have already won this round.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Launch or not, Pyongyang has caused great drama and angst, riled U.S. President Donald Trump and alarmed America\u2019s allies in Tokyo and Seoul. It could also set a precedent for more aggressive brinkmanship ahead.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">It comes as no surprise then that on Tuesday, as North Korea\u2019s state media released photos of Kim and his military officers examining the launch plan, replete with photos of the missiles\u2019 flight path and a big satellite image of the U.S. territory\u2019s Andersen Air Force Base, it also offered a seeming out.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Kim, it said, wants to \u201cwatch a little more\u201d before making a decision.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The North\u2019s plan is to launch four missiles into the waters around the U.S. Pacific territory: one to the north, one to the south, and one each east and west. Pyongyang is calling it an \u201cenveloping fire\u201d demonstration, but in military jargon it\u2019s more commonly called \u201cbracketing.\u201d It was calculated to touch off a storm of anxiety region-wide.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">But firing missiles into Guam\u2019s exclusive economic zone, as the North threatened, would be an extremely risky move. \u201cIf they fire at the United States, it could escalate into war very quickly,\u201d U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said Monday. \u201cYes, that\u2019s called war, if they shoot at us.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_101103\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-101103\" style=\"width: 773px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/n5.jpg\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-101103\" src=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/n5-300x211.jpg\" alt=\"The second test flight was captured by a rooftop camera operated by Japan\u2019s NHK television on the northern island of Hokkaido. A solid-fuel \u201cPukguksong-2\u201d missile lifts off during its launch test at an undisclosed location in North Korea. The picture has been distributed by the North Korean government \" width=\"773\" height=\"544\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/n5-300x211.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/n5.jpg 820w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-101103\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The second test flight was captured by a rooftop camera operated by Japan\u2019s NHK television on the northern island of Hokkaido. A solid-fuel \u201cPukguksong-2\u201d missile lifts off during its launch test at an undisclosed location in North Korea. The picture has been distributed by the North Korean government<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">So, from the start, Pyongyang gave itself big exit ramps.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The North has never said it would attack Guam itself. To make its intentions crystal clear, it provided an extremely detailed account of the planned trajectory of the launch, which Japanese prefectures it would go over, the duration of the flight \u2013 right down to the second \u2013 and the distance of the \u201csplash areas\u201d from Guam\u2019s coast.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">More importantly, it never committed to a launch date. Or, for that matter, to launching the missiles at all.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cThe regime composed the threat in such a way as to allow Kim to back down without losing face,\u201d said Adam Mount, a nuclear strategy specialist with the Center for American Progress. \u201cNorth Korea\u2019s Guam threat was more sophisticated, credible, and coercive than any of the vague warnings Trump made last week.\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">f course, Pyongyang could blow past its own fail-safes.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">It may still want to try its missiles out at an angle closer to the \u201cbattle trajectory\u201d they would fly in a real attack, rather than the \u201clofted\u201d trajectories they\u2019ve been using to avoid flying over neighboring countries. If pushed further, or possibly as a high-profile protest to U.S.-South Korean military exercises that will begin next week, it could also want to use the launch to show the world what it can do and see what it can get away with.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">But many experts who follow North Korea think Kim isn\u2019t in any big hurry.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cIt seems to me they plan to draw this out, perhaps expecting Trump to lose interest,\u201d said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. \u201cIt\u2019s not an empty threat, but it\u2019s also fairly high stakes. I imagine that the North Koreans would skip it if the rhetoric was toned down.\u201d<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Pyongyang has suggested Kim\u2019s decision is contingent on B-1B bomber flights from Guam to Korean airspace. The B-1B, though no longer capable of carrying nuclear weapons, is one of the most advanced bombers in the Air Force and Washington has frequently ordered such missions \u2013 over South Korea but near the DMZ \u2013 as a show of force against Pyongyang.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">If Washington were to halt the flights, Kim could claim a victory. If it were to order the B-1Bs into the air, Pyongyang would have an excuse to launch. Or it could claim it magnanimously refrained from doing so, while reserving the right to do so at a later date.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_101104\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-101104\" style=\"width: 765px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/guam-759.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-101104\" src=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/guam-759-300x167.jpg\" alt=\"People walk around Hagatna, Guam Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2017. Despite government assurances, residents of the U.S. territory Guam say they\u2019re afraid after being caught in the middle of rising tensions between President Donald Trump and North Korea.\" width=\"765\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/guam-759-300x167.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/guam-759.jpg 759w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 765px) 100vw, 765px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-101104\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">People walk around Hagatna, Guam Wednesday, Aug. 9, 2017. Despite government assurances, residents of the U.S. territory Guam say they\u2019re afraid after being caught in the middle of rising tensions between President Donald Trump and North Korea.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">For Kim, in the convoluted world of military deterrence, that\u2019s a win-win.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cI think at some point they\u2019re going to say, `Look, this is not anything different than your flying B-1 bombers over Korea,\u201d\u2019 said Robert Carlin, a contributor to the respected 38 North website and former State Department and CIA analyst.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">\u201cWe\u2019re going to put our missiles 25 or 30 kilometers offshore. Your bombers come within tens of kilometers of the Demilitarized Zone. If you can `reach out and touch\u2019 us, we can `reach out and touch\u2019 you.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>North Korea&#8217;s plan is to launch four missiles into the waters around the U.S. Pacific territory: one to the north, one to the south, and one each east and west. Pyongyang is calling it an &#8220;enveloping fire&#8221; demonstration. If, after all the fanfare, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un doesn\u2019t actually launch missiles toward Guam, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":101102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-te-public"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>To launch or not? Either way, North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong Un may gain - Arab Telegraph<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arabtelegraph.com\/?p=101094\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ar_AR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"To launch or not? Either way, North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong Un may gain - Arab Telegraph\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North Korea&#8217;s plan is to launch four missiles into the waters around the U.S. Pacific territory: one to the north, one to the south, and one each east and west. Pyongyang is calling it an &#8220;enveloping fire&#8221; demonstration. 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