Still locked in 70-year mistrust

Mohssen Arishie – from Seoul

South Korean people remain uncertain whether a historic hand-shaking on April 27 last year between their President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will ever bring about peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon-Kim historic meeting took place at the border village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone. Nor are South Koreans optimistic that smiles exchanged by the two leaders will help dismantle the 70-year mistrust the two nations have been locked in since the Korean Armistice Agreement on 27 July 1953 brought about a complete cessasation of hostiltiies of the 3-year Korean War.

In addition to thick pollution hanging in its air, Seoul is veiled by a thicker atmosphere of tension. South Korea is still divided over whether the North will ever be denuclraised and whether peace will ever be fulfilled in the Korean peninsula. The question haunting young people in South Korea is how much their country’s prosperous economy will pay for having peace with the North; and whether the cost, definitely huge, would come at their expenses.

Pyongyang’s inconsiderate attitude towards the first anniversary of Moon-Kim summit is fuelling the atmosphere of uncertainty and tension that are gripping hard on the South. A month before festivities marking the first inter-Korea summit had taken place, North Korea withdrew from a joint liaison office near the demilitarized zone (DMZ), a key symbol of the rapprochement and ongoing peace process between the two countries.

Then, Pyongyang declined an invitation from Seoul to launch a joint concert. Seoul had to go ahead, launching Bach’s classical harmonies at Panmunjom with artists from the United States, Japan and China performing under the theme of ‘a long but necessary path’ at a number of venues in the truce village.

To raise the morale of peace-loving people in his country and abroad, President Moon Jae-in, the peace initiator, recorded a video message, in which he pledged to continue fighting for peace and follow through on the agreement signed with his peace partner Kim a year ago.

Nonetheless, Moon had to acknowledge that negotiations were running into difficulties. Two summits held so far by US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore and Hanoi to denuclearise Pyongyang did not help President Moon and his people heave a deep sigh of relief.

In their release, Kim and Moon announced their “common goal” of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, which was the clearest such commitment ever agreed to by the two nations. It is noteworthy that North Korea’s pledge to denuclearize came after a year, in which Kim made major advances in developing and testing nuclear weapons.

The gloomy outlook for peace in the Korean peninsula is explained by Dr. Shin Beomchul of Asan Institute for Policy Studies. He said regretfully that President Moon must have been deceived by his alleged North Korean peace partner. The AIPS is an independent, non-partisan think tank established in 2008 with mandate to undertake policy-relevant research to foster domestic, regional and international environments conducive to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, as well as Korean reunification.

Dr. Shin, who is Director of the Institute’s Centre for Security and Unification, does not see even the slightest glimmer of light in the dark tunnel. Rather, he has reservations that President Moon’s step-by-step approach would bear its fruits in the end of the day. “How will such an approach produce concrete results while Pyongyang is resuming its provocative acts?”

Dr. Shin wrote several articles in different newspapers and gave television interviews, explaining the reasons why Pyongyang would not denuclearise. “Korean leader Kim Jong-un had to enter into denuclearization talks only to ease the economic sufferings of his people,” Dr. Shin said.

He noted that direct contacts between Seoul and Pyongyang were no more.

Several past events have contributed to Dr. Shin’s pessimistic vision of the future of peace talks in the Korean peninsula. He reminded Moon and his aides that past historic events in inter-Korean relations did not result in permanent changes to the peace process on the peninsula. According to Dr. Shin’s account, In 2016, North Korean Kim threatened to strike the residence of South Korean President with missiles and kept the world on alert ever since.

Dr. Shin said: “All agreements made at past high-level meetings failed to establish peace or achieve reconciliation between the two sides.” He said: “Instead, the North continued increasing its stockpile of nuclear missiles.” Also, late Kim Jong-Il, the current leader’s father, did not reciprocate two visits by late South Korean presidents Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun in 2007.

Despite such a gloomy atmosphere and heated debate in official and press circles, South Korean President Moon Jae-in appears to be a decisive and resolute preacher of peace. Perhaps, he is optimistic that a third summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will produce the long-sought results—denuclearisation and lasting peace in the Korean peninsula. Reunification is an absolutely different issue.